How serious did the 2019 Corona impact the import and export of China?
According to statistic show,2019 Corona impact the import and export of China seriously, The outbreak of novel coronavirus pneumonia will have a negative impact on China’s import and export in the short term. but it will not change
the basic trend of China’s foreign trade pressure development in the long run. In addition, the epidemic will have a certain negative spillover effect on global international trade. The spread of the epidemic will test the response ability of countries to a certain extent. However, with the restorative growth of China’s economy and foreign trade after the epidemic, the development of global international trade will return to its potential level.
（1） In the short term, the epidemic has a certain negative impact on export trade
In terms of export structure, China’s main export products are industrial products, accounting for 94%. As the epidemic spread to all parts of the country during the Spring Festival, affected by it. the resumption of work of local industrial enterprises during the Spring Festival was delayed.the supporting industries such as transportation, logistics and warehousing were limited, and the inspection and quarantine work was more strict. These factors will reduce the production efficiency of export enterprises and increase transaction costs and risks in the short term.
From the perspective of the return of enterprise labor force, the impact of the epidemic appeared after the Spring Festival, which seriously affected the normal flow of personnel. All provinces in China formulate corresponding personnel flow control measures according to the development of local epidemic situation.
Among the provinces with more than 500 confirmed cases, in addition to Hubei, which is the most serious epidemic. it includes major foreign trade provinces such as Guangdong (exports accounted for 28.8% of the country in 2019, the same later), Zhejiang (13.6%) and Jiangsu (16.1%). as well as major labor exporting provinces such as Sichuan, Anhui and Henan. The superposition of the two factors will make it more difficult for China’s export enterprises to resume work.
The recovery of enterprise production capacity depends not only on the local epidemic control, but also on the epidemic response measures and effects of other provinces. According to the overall migration trend of the whole country during the Spring Festival transportation provided by Baidu map.compared with the Spring Festival transportation in 2019, the return of personnel in the early stage of the Spring Festival transportation in 2020 was not significantly affected by the epidemic. while the epidemic in the late stage of the Spring Festival Transportation had a great impact on the return of personnel.
Novel coronavirus pneumonia (WHO) announced the establishment of an international public health emergency (PHEIC) in January 31, 2020. Although PHEIC did not recommend travel or trade restrictions, some of the States parties were still implementing temporary control over specific categories of commercial exports in the world. Most of the restricted products are agricultural products, which has a limited impact on China’s overall export in the short term. However, as the epidemic continues, the number of countries with trade restrictions may increase, and the scope and intensity of interim measures may also be strengthened.
From the perspective of shipping logistics, the impact of the epidemic on exports has emerged. Calculated by volume, 80% of the global cargo trade is transported by sea. The change of marine shipping business can reflect the impact of the epidemic on trade in real time. With the continuation of the epidemic, Australia, Singapore and other countries have tightened the regulations on berthing. Maersk, Mediterranean Shipping and other international shipping company groups have said that, they have reduced the number of ships on some routes from mainland China and Hong Kong. The average charter price in the Pacific region has fallen to the lowest level in the last three years in the first week of February 2020, as shown in Figure 2. The index reflects the impact of the epidemic on export trade in real time from the perspective of shipping market.
（2） The long-term impact of the epidemic on exports is limited
The degree of impact on export trade mainly depends on the duration and scope of the epidemic. Although the epidemic has a certain impact on China’s export trade in the short term, its impact is phased and temporary.
From the demand side, external demand is generally stable, and the global economy has bottomed out and rebounded. On February 19, the IMF said that at present, the global economic development has shown a certain stability, and the relevant risks have weakened. It is expected that the global economic growth this year will be 0.4 percentage points higher than that in 2019. reaching 3.3%. According to the data released by Markit on February 3, the final value of the global manufacturing purchasing managers’ index PMI in January was 50.4, slightly higher than the previous value of 50.0. that is, slightly higher than the ups and downs watershed of 50.0, a nine month high. The growth rate of output and new orders accelerated, and employment and international trade also tended to stabilize.
